The rise and fall of the real estate market is subject to the forces of supply and demand, and these factors point to stable and positive growth in the real estate segment.

SUPPLY FACTORS

Limited supply of real estate makes it scarce and usually pushes home prices up. In contrast, an oversupply of real estate tends to put downward pressure on home prices. Despite the current slow down in the real estate market, factors that impact limited supply favor continued growth in the real estate market. Some of these factors include:

1. Builders have readjusted growth plans in regions that have an oversupply of new housing. Over time, any excess inventory is likely to be depleted and equilibrium achieved between supply and demand.

2. The availability of land in certain regions, as well land use regulations and associated compliance costs will continue to restrict the supply of new homes.

DEMAND FACTORS:

Housing located in regions with high demand tend to be more expensive than homes in regions with low demand. Factors that impact the demand for housing suggests a favorable long-term housing outlook. Some of these factors include:

1. No current evidence of significant and across-the-board job losses; forecasts of relatively low unemployment rates.

2. Long-term increased demand for second homes, vacation homes and senior housing by baby boomers.

3. Long-term increased demand for entry-level homes by the children of baby boomers.

4. Long-term increased demand for entry-level homes by immigrants.

5. Long-term increased demand for entry-level homes by second-generation Americans.

6. Forecasts that the outflows and inflows of the U.S. population in and out different regions will not significantly impact the overall U.S. real estate housing market.

7. Relative stability in interest rates.

8. Continued stability in long-term home appreciation rates.

9. Overall, rising rate of wealth across all age groups.

SUMMARY

In summary, strong household growth, overall rising incomes and wealth, and a stable economy all bode well for continued long-term growth in the real estate market. While the overall housing outlook is favorable, affordability will continue to be a challenge, as wages, especially in the lower income levels, have not kept up with housing costs.

To evaluate the impact of foreign investment on the U.S. real estate market, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) produced a 2006 report entitled ‘Foreign Investment in U.S. Real Estate: Current Trends and Historical Perspective.’ The report provides insights into the trends in foreign real estate investment, its impact on the U.S. economy, and the major countries that participate in U.S. real estate investment. Below are some highlights from the NAR report.

According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the top seven countries that had significant holdings in U.S. real estate as of 2005 were:

Germany – 13 %
Latin America – 13 %
Australia – 11 %
Japan -10 %
United Kingdom – 10 %
Canada – 6 %
Netherlands – 6 %

The U.S. economy is wide open to foreign investors. Both investors and Americans significantly benefit from all this foreign investment. The NAR study estimates that without foreign investments in the securities market, the long-term lending rates would be four percentage points higher than the current rate, which would adversely impact the U.S. real estate market.

Foreign direct investment into the U.S. not only creates more jobs but also contributes to the demand for U.S. real estate. In fact, foreign investment may be responsible for creating two million U.S. jobs by the end of 2006, which further bolsters the demand for U.S. real estate.

Permanent and temporary immigration of foreign-born workers into the U.S. further bolsters the demand for real estate. According to the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University, 1.2 million net immigrants are expected to arrive in the United States annually. This immigration pattern is expected to offset the decrease in housing demand by post baby-boomer generations.

In summary, the impact of foreign investment and immigration into the U.S. will continue to play a major role in the U.S. real estate market.

There are some important factors that investors should consider when searching for stable investments such as single-family homes, condos or any other type of real estate. Some of these factors include a fast growing population (which positively impacts the demand for housing), a solid and diverse economy (which impacts employment rates and subsequent demand for housing), rising incomes (which impacts buyers’ ability to purchase real estate), a developing infrastructure (which contributes to the appeal of a city or community), and restrictions on future real estate development (which limits future supply of real estate). Investing in real estate within communities that meet these criteria may prove to be more profitable than communities that are missing one or more of these factors.

A recent report by Business 2.0 Magazine identified U.S. cities that have consistently demonstrated price appreciation in the real estate market. The October 2006 issue of the Magazine identified the top 5 real estate markets that demonstrated an upward price trend over a long period time. The top-ranking cities were:

1. San Francisco, California
2. Los Angeles, California
3. Seattle, Washington
4. Boston, Massachusetts
5. New York City, New York

San Francisco topped the list with an average annual home price appreciation of 4.2% from 1949 to 2006. In contrast, the national average was 2.3%. Strong restrictions on real estate development and a limited geography helped push San Francisco to the top slot.

Los Angeles ranked second in the report. The average annual home price appreciation in Los Angeles was 3.7% from 1949 to 2006. Reductions in available land and increasing restrictions on further development helped pushed Los Angeles to the number 2 slot.

Home prices in Seattle, which was third on the list, demonstrated an average appreciation rate of 3.2% from 1949 to 2006. While Seattle made the top 5 list, recent easing of building restrictions may cause Seattle to fall out of the top 5 over the next few years.

Boston was fourth in the rankings. The city has seen annual home prices appreciate by 3% over the period from 1949 to 2006. A strong increase in per capita income contributed to Boston’s high ranking.

New York City follows close behind with an average annual home price appreciation of 3% from 1949 to 2006. A limited geography, large population, and finite number of properties contributed to New York’s high ranking.

While there is no guarantee that any of the real estate markets listed previously are truly “bubble proof,” the factors described above may help investors find the profitable markets and avoid “bubble” markets. Since the real estate market is constantly changing, be sure to seek out the services of a skillful real estate agent to help you navigate your next real estate purchase.